China zal komend decennium een inhaalslag gaan maken ten opzichte van het westen. De afhankelijkheid van China aan het westen wordt door velen overschat. 60% van de export van China gaat namelijk al naar andere emerging markets.
Een ander onderdeel wat wel een mogelijk probleem kan gaan vormen is de strijd om grondstoffen. In het verleden zijn daar al vaak oorlogen over gevoerd en het zou zeer goed mogelijk zijn dat Amerika en China hier nog eens onenigheid over zouden kunnen krijgen. Beide landen zijn namelijk steeds meer afhankelijk van de import van grondstoffen. (Recent: Obama laat ineens boringen toe net voor de kust van Amerika, wat vroeger altijd uit den boze was)
Toenemende vraag, grote inflatie en oorlogen zullen allemaal een opwaarts effect hebben voor de prijs van grondstoffen.
Paul van Gompel
donderdag 1 april 2010
zaterdag 20 maart 2010
dinsdag 23 februari 2010
'Buy farmland and gold,' advises Dr Doom
The world’s most powerful investors have been advised to buy farmland, stock up on gold and prepare for a “dirty war” by Marc Faber, the notoriously bearish market pundit, who predicted the 1987 stock market crash.
The bleak warning of social and financial meltdown, delivered today in Tokyo at a gathering of 700 pension and sovereign wealth fund managers.
Dr Faber, who advised his audience to pull out of American stocks one week before the 1987 crash and was among a handful who predicted the more recent financial crisis, vies with the Nouriel Roubini, the economist, as a rival claimant for the nickname Dr Doom.
Speaking today, Dr Faber said that investors, who control billions of dollars of assets, should start considering the effects of more disruptive events than mere market volatility.
“The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers: "What are you going to do when your mobile phone gets shut down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”
His investment advice, which was the first keynote speech of CLSA’s annual investment forum in Tokyo, included a suggestion that fund managers buy houses in the countryside because it was more likely that violence, biological attack and other acts of a “dirty war” would happen in cities.
He also said that they should consider holding part of their wealth in the form of precious metals “because they can be carried”.
One London-based hedge fund manager described Mr Faber’s address as “excellent, chilling stuff: good at putting you off lunch, but not something I can tell clients asking me about quarterly returns at the end of March”.
Dr Faber did offer a few more traditional investment tips, although their theme fitted his general mode of pessimism.
In Asia, particularly, he said, stock pickers should play on future food and water shortages by buying into companies with exposure to agriculture and water treatment technologies.
One of Dr Faber’s darker scenarios involves growing military tension between China and the United States over access to limited oil resources.
Today the US has a considerable advantage over China because it has free access to oceans on both coasts, and has potential energy suppliers to the north and south in Canada and Mexico.
It also commands an 11-strong fleet of aircraft carriers that could, if necessary, secure supply routes in a conflict situation.
China and emerging Asia, meanwhile, face the uncertainty of supplies that must travel from the Middle East through winding sea lanes and the Malacca bottleneck.
American military presence in Central Asia, Dr Faber said, may add to the level of concern in Beijing.
“When I tell people to prepare themselves for a dirty war, they ask me: “America against whom?” I tell them that for sure they will find someone.”
At the heart of Dr Faber’s argument is a fundamentally gloomy view on the US economy and its capacity to service a growing mountain of debt.
His belief, fund managers were told, is that the US is going to go bankrupt.
Under President Obama, he said, the country’s annual fiscal deficit will not drop below $1 trillion and could rise beyond that figure.
Arch bears have predicted that US debt repayments could hit 35 per cent of tax revenues within ten years.
Dr Faber believes that the ratio could easily hit 50 per cent in the same time frame.
The Times
The bleak warning of social and financial meltdown, delivered today in Tokyo at a gathering of 700 pension and sovereign wealth fund managers.
Dr Faber, who advised his audience to pull out of American stocks one week before the 1987 crash and was among a handful who predicted the more recent financial crisis, vies with the Nouriel Roubini, the economist, as a rival claimant for the nickname Dr Doom.
Speaking today, Dr Faber said that investors, who control billions of dollars of assets, should start considering the effects of more disruptive events than mere market volatility.
“The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers: "What are you going to do when your mobile phone gets shut down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”
His investment advice, which was the first keynote speech of CLSA’s annual investment forum in Tokyo, included a suggestion that fund managers buy houses in the countryside because it was more likely that violence, biological attack and other acts of a “dirty war” would happen in cities.
He also said that they should consider holding part of their wealth in the form of precious metals “because they can be carried”.
One London-based hedge fund manager described Mr Faber’s address as “excellent, chilling stuff: good at putting you off lunch, but not something I can tell clients asking me about quarterly returns at the end of March”.
Dr Faber did offer a few more traditional investment tips, although their theme fitted his general mode of pessimism.
In Asia, particularly, he said, stock pickers should play on future food and water shortages by buying into companies with exposure to agriculture and water treatment technologies.
One of Dr Faber’s darker scenarios involves growing military tension between China and the United States over access to limited oil resources.
Today the US has a considerable advantage over China because it has free access to oceans on both coasts, and has potential energy suppliers to the north and south in Canada and Mexico.
It also commands an 11-strong fleet of aircraft carriers that could, if necessary, secure supply routes in a conflict situation.
China and emerging Asia, meanwhile, face the uncertainty of supplies that must travel from the Middle East through winding sea lanes and the Malacca bottleneck.
American military presence in Central Asia, Dr Faber said, may add to the level of concern in Beijing.
“When I tell people to prepare themselves for a dirty war, they ask me: “America against whom?” I tell them that for sure they will find someone.”
At the heart of Dr Faber’s argument is a fundamentally gloomy view on the US economy and its capacity to service a growing mountain of debt.
His belief, fund managers were told, is that the US is going to go bankrupt.
Under President Obama, he said, the country’s annual fiscal deficit will not drop below $1 trillion and could rise beyond that figure.
Arch bears have predicted that US debt repayments could hit 35 per cent of tax revenues within ten years.
Dr Faber believes that the ratio could easily hit 50 per cent in the same time frame.
The Times
maandag 15 februari 2010
Alles wordt duurder
Olie wordt duurder, kolen worden duurder, staal wordt duurder, edelmetalen worden duurder. U begrijpt het, alles wordt duurder. Grondstoffenproducenten becijferen een groei van de vraag door een groei van de wereldbevolking en een stijgende welvaart. Tegelijkertijd heeft de kredietcrisis ervoor gezorgd dat investeringen in productiefaciliteiten fors zijn gedaald. Een discrepantie in vraag en aanbod is het resultaat.
Telegraph
Telegraph
zondag 24 januari 2010
Vooruitzicht aandelenmarkten
"Zoals ik al in één van mijn eerdere berichten meldde zullen we een correctie krijgen. De markten zijn al laat met deze correctie. We hebben er de laatste 9 à 10 maanden geen gehad en het wordt hoog tijd voor een nieuwe. De markten zijn vrijwel recht naar boven gegaan in deze maanden en de geschiedenis leert ons dat zulke herstelbewegingen niet houdbaar zijn en gevolgd worden door een correctie. Of het nu deze maand gebeurt of over een half jaar, het gaat hoe dan ook gebeuren."
Paul van Gompel
Paul van Gompel
zondag 10 januari 2010
Toekomst van residentieel vastgoed
"Komende 5 à 10 jaar zullen slechte jaren zijn voor residentieel vastgoed in Nederland. De producten die de torenhoge huizenprijzen mogelijk maakten zoals de tophypotheek zijn uit den boze. Banken blijven op hun geld zitten. De banken zullen nog jarenlang afschrijvingen moeten doen zoals dat ook in Japan het geval was in de jaren '90. Ook blijven ze verkapte staatssteun krijgen waarbij ze geld mogen lenen tegen 0,25% en deze "risicovrij" kunnen wegzetten in staatsobligaties à 4,5%. Daarnaast zullen we te maken krijgen met hogere rentes en de afschaf van de hypotheekrenteaftrek wat een drukkende factor zal hebben op het residentieel vastgoed."
Paul van Gompel
Paul van Gompel
zondag 3 januari 2010
Centrale banken en goud...
”You have central banks, which five years ago were selling gold, now buying. So that's a huge shift in the marketplace. Central banks are like lots of other people—they just follow the crowd. There are probably better commodities to buy than gold, but you can't tell that to central banks because they've got gold on the brain.“
Jim Rogers in Commodity Online
Jim Rogers in Commodity Online
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